Is there cause for optimism in the research community? It’s still too early to tell but anecdotal evidence from a number of sources suggests that the purse strings are being loosened up just a bit and some research projects that had been put on hold are inching forward.

In chatting with research vendors in Chicago in June at the MRA’s annual conference, hopeful smiles replaced the worried winces that had previously flashed across faces when I’ve asked how business was going. The general message I got was that while research companies’ phones aren’t ringing off the hook with new business, there is evidence that client-side researchers are s-l-o-w-l-y starting to ford the waters again.

No one is suggesting, however, that researchers at client companies will be in a rush to make up for lost time and spend like crazy on all of the projects they’ve held in check during the first half of the year. It’s more likely that we’re in for a new era of austerity.

Still, many areas of research seem amazingly resilient. Take the venerable focus group, for example. Looking at the numbers from FocusVision Worldwide’s 2008 Focus Group Index, which were issued in May, the number of focus groups conducted worldwide in 2008 was 538,000, up 0.2 percent from 2007. Granted, the number of sessions conducted in the U.S. in 2008 declined to 251,000 from 255,000 in 2007 (the number of non-U.S.-groups increased by 1.7 percent from 2007 to 2008), but given that we were in the throes of a downturn for much of last year, it’s amazing there wasn’t a larger decline.

“It’s been such a rough economy for everyone,” says Carol McNerney, FocusVision Worldwide’s vice president of marketing, in an interview. “Even when the economy was bad in previous downturns, research has been steady, and this is the first time we’ve seen a bit of dip, which is proof of how bad things really are. Though it’s really not that severe of a drop when you consider how tough it has been for other industries.”

To compile its figures, Stamford, Conn.-based FocusVision looks at data from a multitude of sources - including ESOMAR, the MRA and other industry bodies - coupled with estimates of advertising and marketing spending and input from its network of 370 facilities around the world.

FocusVision cites the decline in ad spend as having the greatest impact on the number of focus groups conducted. In 2008, worldwide ad spend was $2.641 billion, down from $2.653 in 2007, reflecting the first decrease in U.S. ad spend in five years, according to the firm’s data.

Interesting to see

Given the terrible first half, it will be interesting to see the final 2009 figures when all is said and done. Within the U.S. so far this year, FocusVision has noticed an interesting geographic difference, McNerney says. “It’s more anecdotal at this point, but our East Coast facilities had a really tough first quarter this year but they are seeing the second quarter really turn around. Our West Coast facilities were the opposite: They had a strong January, February and March but they are having a tougher April and May.”

In assessing the near-term prospects, McNerney echoes the sentiments I heard from the other research company reps I spoke with at the MRA event. “We are seeing everything coming back slowly. We got the impression the first quarter that everyone was holding their breath and waiting, and now we are seeing them start to do a lot more research. I think everyone just said, ‘We don’t know what’s going to happen so let’s freeze our budgets until we start to see things turn around.’ It wasn’t like they were cancelling the research, they just wanted to wait until 2Q. They probably won’t make up to the numbers that they would have spent but at least it’s back on the upswing.”