Editor's note: This article appeared in the November 23, 2009, edition of Quirk's e-newsletter.

Black Friday is a short four days away - officially shoving the 2009 holiday shopping season into full swing - and consumers are still trying to balance recession-driven-thrift with a generous holiday spirit. With one recession holiday season under their belts, the outlook is decidedly less dismal as shoppers find more creative ways to make it work. Department stores, retailers with great online shopping services and layaway programs and - believe it or not! - thrift stores may fare the best as shoppers scope out (and wait out) the sales, according to the top 10 holiday shopping trends predicted by Ellen Davis of the National Retail Federation (NRF), Washington, D.C., and Phil Rist, BIGresearch, Cincinnati, and posted to the NRF's Retail's BIG Blog on October 20, 2009.

1. Americans aren't ready to declare an end to the recession. According to a survey by BIGresearch, Americans will not believe the recession is over until they see a reduction in unemployment. So while an increase in stock-market activity might be great news for high-end retailers, it's not helping retailers who cater to Middle America. "The Wall Street traders are excited but the average American isn't in the pit. They'll be looking at the job market to see when they should feel better," says Rist.

2. It's all about the economy. People are making changes to gifts (more practical gifts, joint gifts, home-made gifts, etc.), as well as putting up last year's decorations. The economy will also impact where people shop, with 70 percent planning to head to discounters and 11 percent planning to buy something from a thrift store or resale shop, according to the NRF's holiday survey. Are you among the one in 10 people to consider purchasing a used gift this year?

3. Sales and promotions are king. More than half of people say that sales or everyday low prices will be the deciding factor on where they buy. But with inventories at a minimum, it will be interesting to watch the push-and-pull between retailers and customers. Retailers, who have scaled back on inventory, are telling consumers to shop early while consumers, who are used to waiting until the last minute for good deals, might plan to hold out for better sales.

4. Pay attention to payment methods. An increase in credit-card minimums and also an increase in interest rates may impact spending. This is an expenditure that Americans don't like, many can't accommodate and most weren't expecting. This shift could bode well for retailers who offer layaway as many consumers may shy away from credit cards.

5. It's the thought that counts. Hallmark and friends, take a deep breath: Greeting-card spending won't experience as dramatic of a drop as many other categories. Americans say they'll spend 2 percent less on greeting cards this year (compared with 17 percent less on friends and 15 percent less on coworkers). Turns out people might be just sending a card instead of a gift. Better get those stamps ready.

6. 'Tis the season to eat. Candy and food spending is up about $10 per person - the only category that rose in the NRF's survey. "People may be giving gifts of pie or cookies instead of buying them something, or they might invite others over to the house for a get-together," says Rist.

7. Gift cards aren't dead. When asking people what they wanted to receive this year, gift cards were the only category that saw an increase. While people may worry that gift cards are impersonal, gift cards remain the most asked-for item. There could be a few reasons behind this: People may want to use gift cards they receive on necessities like gas, food or laundry detergent, or they may love the idea of going into a store to buy something for themselves after curbing their spending all year long. In tandem with trend No. 6 (it really is the holiday season of food), Rist also suggests that many people might want to receive gift cards for restaurants to enjoy dinner out with their family.

8. When looking at store sales, consider the Internet. The Web will influence one in three holiday purchases this year, and retailers are using the Internet not only as a sales channel but also as a marketing vehicle. An omnibus study from Farmington Hills, Mich., research company Morpace also indicated that online retailers could benefit from the H1N1 epidemic. Nearly one in five consumers say their concern over H1N1 will cause them to avoid shopping on traditionally busy retail days, perhaps causing consumers to do more shopping from the comfort and safety of their own homes.

9. Don't discount department stores. Department stores are doing something right among the 18-24-year-old age group: Young adults are more likely to shop at department stores than anywhere else during the holiday season. These retailers, which include Macy's, JCPenney and Kohl's, are also doing a nice job with private-label products, positioning themselves as discounters (at least on price) and creating an environment where young adults like to shop. That said, keep in mind that young adults are the most likely to wait until the last minute to shop, meaning a large portion of department store sales might come in very close to Christmas Day.

10. Impulse spending? Fuhgettaboutit. The number of people who plan to make additional, non-gift purchases for themselves or their family declined this year, and those who will make additional purchases will also spend less on them. "It's not in the budget this year for people to treat themselves, and some may feel a little guilty doing that. Instead, they're taking their holiday budget and focusing on people on their list," said Rist.