Editors note: This article is an actual case history involving Delphi forecasting. Names of the companies involved are being withheld.


Delphi forecasting is a market research technique which uses a small group of experts selected from a particular industry to respond to a scenario of that industry The scenario involves forecasting the future of that industry.

The technique is conducted in rounds, meaning, separate sets of questions are asked at designated time frames during the research process. As many as six rounds may be conducted. After each round, the information is consolidated and edited. The editing process enables the supplier to eliminate bias from the answers.

Unlike focus groups, the respondents answer the questions independently and do not know who else is involved in the study. The only means of interaction is when they are given the feedback from the other respondents after each set of questions. This feedback is used to develop the next set of questions. The objective is to narrow the responses of the respondents at each phase of questioning so at the final phase the respondents have reached a consensus on the subject.

The value of the Delphi technique is that it uses experts, people who would normally be rejected from research. Additionally, separating the respondents cuts down on the bias and influence that may affect their answers when other respondents are present. With other respondents listening, answers are more likely to reflect the conventional wisdom heard in that particular industry. This "wisdom," however, may not reflect what is necessarily true of that industry.

The Delphi technique may test the boundaries of conventional wisdom but it does have its risks. Besides being costly and time consuming, there is no assurance that the desired results will be obtained. Despite these drawbacks, the Delphi technique is a unique approach to research and no other technique is able to get the same results.

Beverage study

One Delphi study conducted two years ago with very favorable results investigated the beverage industry. A Minneapolis commercial research firm was responsible for the survey design and field work. The client was a manufacturer of an ingredient which is used in beverages and the panel of 12 experts were involved in the alcohol and non-alcohol segments of the industry. These industries included distilled spirits, wine, beer, juices, powdered beverages, coffee, tea, milk, pop and water. It took about one month to select the respondents who were chosen from across the country. Secondary data, personal interviews and other people's recommendations were the basis on which the 12 were chosen. All of the respondents were paid to participate in the study and were given the findings of the study when the project was completed.

Research methodology

A mail questionnaire in a three round format was used. The first scenario included historical data on the beverage industry and 15 questions. The second round had eight pages of synopsis from the findings of the first round and five questions narrowing things down further. The last round involved eight pointed questions. It took almost three weeks between each round to get the responses back and to edit them. Many follow-up phone calls were made to further clarify and expand on the submitted responses.

Research results

Overall, the feedback from the three-round questionnaire was extensive and surfaced predictions about the beverage industry which are being realized today. One study finding revealed that demographics, which most industry sources correlate with beverage consumption, are not the most important factors affecting beverage consumption. Rather, psychological, social and behavioral factors contribute to the popularity of a beverage. For example, the media and consumers have emphasized that the "Yuppies" (Young Urban Professionals) are drinking bottled water beverages and their influence will make this beverage the drink of the future. The research revealed, however, that bottled water consumption increased not because of the "Yuppie" influence but because people have become concerned with the quality of their water in their homes. The large increases in bottled water consumption are in still water consumed at home, not in carbonated water.

The rise in the consumption of imported beer is another example. The media entices consumers to buy it by associating it as the drink of the "Yuppie'' generation. However, research showed that the popularity of these imports is not because they're associated with a socially attractive group of people but because of the beer's distinct and fresh taste in comparison to American brands. This is reflected in several different market segments.

One other area in question was the reason for the steadily decreasing consumption of alcoholic beverages. Many people have said this is happening because of many anti-alcohol campaigns such as "MADD" (Mothers Against Drunk Drivers), and "SADD" (Students Against Drunk Drivers). The findings showed that population age characteristics were the cause of lower consumption levels.

Having experts as the respondents for the project generated valuable information that couldn't have been achieved using other resources. The Delphi technique provided results which helped the client in its business strategy and development which had not been possible with more conventional research techniques.