Vacationing is a high priority among Americans this year despite uncertain economic conditions which have been fueled by last October's stock market crash, reports the American Express 1988 National Travel Forecast.


The Forecast survey shows that:

  • More than one-third (36%) of Americans plan to take more vacations in 1988 which are four days or longer than they did in 1987, while only 9% plan to take fewer pleasure trips in the coming year.

  • Almost two-thirds (64%) are willing to cut back on luxuries in order to take a vacation in the coming year.

  • Price and quality of service are the most influential factors Americans will consider when they choose a destination in 1988.
  • As in previous years, the majority of Americans (85%) plan to vacation in the U.S. (including Hawaii) in 1988. About one in 10 say they intend to go to Canada (10%), a Caribbean island (8%) or Europe (8%).
  • Orlando is the city which these Americans are most interested in visiting next year (14%), particularly among those Americans who are most likely to have children at home (25-49 years old). Washington, D.C. is also a popular destination (12%), especially among the elderly (65 or older).

In order of preference, after Orlando and Washington, the most popular domestic destinations are: Honolulu, Los Angeles, Denver, San Francisco, New York, New Orleans and Atlanta.

Specific city destinations are most popular within the region of the country in which they are located. For example, Westerners are more likely to want to go to either San Francisco or Hawaii. Orlando and Washington, D.C. are most popular with those from the Northeast. New York is the most popular destination among Westerners.

Omnibus survey

The American Express National Travel Forecast survey was conducted Dec. 11-13, 1987, by R.H. Bruskin & Associates, New Brunswick, N.J., through OmniTel, the company's weekly telephone omnibus survey.

A total of 1,030 people (525 women; 505 men) were interviewed. The sample interviews were weighted to ensure an accurate and reliable representation of the total U.S. population, 18 years and older.

The sample was broken down by sex, age, income level and census region. The sampling system was computer-based and provides an equal probability of selection for each U.S. household with a telephone.

According to Tommaso Zanzotto, president of Travel & Travel Management Services, U.S.A. for American Express Travel Related Services Co., Inc., New York, travel is a necessary part of many peoples' lives.

"We in the travel industry have known for years that Americans today see vacations more as an essential part of life than a luxury. Because of this, we expect economic uncertainty and the fluctuation of the exchange rate overseas to have little impact on travel."

Younger Americans aged 18-34 are most likely to rank vacations as a top priority. Foregoing luxury purchases in order to take a vacation were cited by 74% of those surveyed in this age group, compared with 64% of all Americans surveyed.

Women are more likely than men to choose a vacation above other forms of spending in 1988. Sixty-seven percent of those women surveyed said they were willing to cut back on luxury spending to afford a vacation in 1988, compared with 60 % of men.

Price and quality

Price or quality of service are major influences on the choice of vacation destinations, according to half of those surveyed (49%). "Increasingly, consumers are becoming more critical of the service they receive while on vacation," says Zanzotto. "At American Express we closely monitor customer reaction on the service we deliver and adjust our products and operating procedures accordingly."

After family and friends, travel agents are the most popular source of travel information, particularly for those Americans with highest household incomes, the survey found.

Rest and relaxation, as well as visiting relatives or friends are the most popular activities on a vacation, the survey also found. Discovering places off the beaten path, active sports and visiting major tourist attractions are popular activities as well. Active sports are especially popular with younger Americans and visiting tourist attractions are more popular with those who are older.

A survey of American Express Travel Agencies in major U.S. cities indicated that cruises are particularly popular this year. Also, interest in the Soviet Union is increasing since the recent visit of Soviet General Secretary Mikhail Gorbachev to the U.S.

Travel leader

American Express commissioned this survey, the first of its kind for the company, to raise the public's awareness of the travel company. "It helps position the company as a leader in the travel industry," says Dr. David Michaelson, vice president and assistant director of research at Burson- Marstellar, New York, the ad agency for American Express, "and to be a source of credible and reliable travel information." The company will also use this information for more in-depth market research surveys, to determine travel packages, and to help determine who to market to.

American Express' network of 500 owned and representative offices located in most major cities throughout the U.S. is part of a worldwide network of more than 1,400 locations. Each is a full-service travel agency providing a wide-range of travel and financial services for the traveler and the American Express Card member.

American Express Travel Related Services Co., Inc., a wholly-owned subsidiary of American Express Co., is a family of travel, financial, insurance, data processing and communications businesses.