If you're considering introducing a new product or service or revamping an old one, an important question to answer is: What societal trends might spell success or failure for your efforts? Gauging the direction of social change is difficult; you're likely to find yourself buffeted about by some vicious crosswinds. Because just as one source is adamant that x will happen, another is screaming that y is the wave of the future.
There are trend sayers galore; it's not hard to find one who confirms your suspicion. But then you run the risk of falling victim to that person's or group's hidden agenda, should there be one. The best way to avoid that is to have the numbers, the hard figures and facts, at your disposal.
With that in mind, here are two new books that offer a little shelter from all the hot air swirling around out there.
The first is "Future Vision," from Eric Miller, publisher of Research Alert, a bi-weekly newsletter that summarizes market research findings from a number of sources. He and his editorial staff have used a similar approach in compiling the tidbits found in "Future Vision." The book doesn't predict the future, rather it provides facts and figures that point to what may happen. The 250-page book presents, under chapter headings such as Population, Politics, Money, Home, and Food, short paragraphs containing findings and analysis of studies and surveys on all areas of American life. The findings are taken from government sources, associations, universities, ad agencies, publications (from The New York Times to Discount Store News), and research firms. The savvy analysis is supplied by Miller and his staff.
Some sample findings: "more than 18 million Americans bought new bathroom or kitchen faucets in the past 12 months;" "Asian shoppers are the least interested in coupons and catalog shopping when compared to white, Hispanic, and black consumers;" "adults 55+ account for 47 percent of the listening audience for news/talk stations."
The book is subtitled, "The 189 Most Important Trends of the 1990s," though the trends are neither numbered nor explicitly stated. Some of the entries make projections, but more often it seems they are intended to give you the basis for making you own predictions.
Consider source
In an introduction, Miller stresses the importance of considering the source of opinions on trends. He advocates digging for independent confirmation when possible because the purveyors of hype, he says, work in three ways, by, "reporting a false fact; taking an actual fact, framing it, shining a spotlight on it - thus removing it from context or overemphasizing it; citing an inclination as an actuality."
With that in mind, Miller has interspersed among the entries helpful "hype alerts" containing a common belief on a societal trend followed by evidence (either numbers or gut instincts) refuting it. For example:
Hype alert: "Americans are getting fitter." Think big -  Americans are fatter than ever. Most Americans (64 percent are overweight, the highest percentage ever - plus, 20 percent of those who are overweight do not think they are. Prevention magazine.
Hype alert: "The end of 'me-ism,' the beginning of 'we-ism.'" Are Americans rejecting greed-is-goodism and personal gain for sharing, cooperation, and volunteerism? Yes and no. Yes, that is the direction in which the nation has turned. No, this isn't going to find important expression until well into the 1990s. And no, we aren't going to be post-materialistic. Americans love their stuff. The facts evidence no indication of decreasing desire for owning goods, and in fact, image-consciousness is alive and well, and going global.
Not comprehensive
On the minus side, the book is, in a sense, at the mercy of the studies that are available, so it's not comprehensive. You won't find everything there is to know about, say, shopping habits. But since the primary sources are listed, you can investigate further if the facts pique your interest.
Another slight drawback is the book's organization. There isn't an index. And some chapters share overlapping information. For example, a few entries on book buying that could easily be found under "reading habits" in the Leisure chapter are instead placed in the chapter on media use. You may have to hunt a bit to find all of the references to your area of interest.
Still, the book contains enough information (some of it surprising - I didn't know that teen use of plastic surgery had increased over 300 percent in the past few years) and hype-bashing to be very worthwhile.
No squinting necessary
The second book offers thousands of figures for you to use in making your own predictions. It is "Consumer Power," Margaret Ambry's follow-up to her monumental "1990-91 Almanac of Consumer Markets" (reviewed in the May, 1990 issue of QMRR). "Consumer Power" is equally huge, but it's big for a reason. Packed with data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics' annual Consumer Expenditure Survey (CES), the book has over 450 pages of oversize data tables. No squinting necessary.
The CES is a marvel of our tax dollars at work, proof that the government can sometimes do things right. The ongoing survey collects over 35,000 spending records from 25,000 U.S. households, recording purchases of everything from houses to babies' underwear.
For example, the section on vehicle purchases breaks down into purchases on steering system repair, body work, clutch work; the "food at home" section has figures on purchases of condiments and seasonings, frozen and refrigerated bakery products.
Until recently, you had to go to a data house to get CES data in this kind of detail, but Ambry, former editor of American Demographics Press and current editor-in-chief of New Strategist Publications, has assembled it for you.
An introductory section explains how to use the tables. The book is organized by product and service area, Transportation, Entertainment, Health Care, Financial Services, etc. It also includes summary tables broken out by variables such as age, race, income, region, and marital status. Each section offers a quick overview with five-year spending trends and spending projections to the year 2000.
"Consumer Power" is a quick source of information that's easy to use and easy on the eyes.
"Future Vision," $12.95, 250 pp., is published by Sourcebooks Trade, P.O. Box 372, Naperville, II 60566 (708-961-2161). "Consumer Power," $69.95, 461 pp., is published by New Strategist Publications, P.O. Box 242, Ithaca, NY 14851 (607-273-0913).
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