Supply on demand

Editor’s note: Andrew Adelson is president of InterSight, a Brookline, Mass., research firm. Kevin O’Neill is senior vice president and chief research strategist at Market Perspectives Inc., a Framingham, Mass., research firm.

One of the hottest topics in the ever-changing world of e-business is supply chains. Supply chains are electronic links between a company and its vendors and customers. Using the Internet, buyers, sellers and even competitors work en masse, trading excess inventory, capacity and tips. For example, supply chains are making strange bedfellows of GM, Ford and Chrysler. Several reputable analysts earmark these cyber-flea markets to do $100 billion per year in business.

With the emergence of this great new opportunity, scores of companies are wondering how supply chains will develop in the coming years. For insights into this and other questions about supply chains, our firms – InterSight and Market Perspectives – jointly conducted a study, sponsored by more than 20 clients which combined 100 interviews of supply chain ambassadors plus a Web survey of these and a few hundred more. Results will be in syndicated publication later this quarter.

At the outset of the project it dawned on us that research itself is a supply chain, and that we could apply the same concept to our study. So we created an approach to research that assembles and makes available information in a manner similar to a supply chain.

The research incorporated a specially designed relational database using automated procedures and dynamically-created Web pages which made the project faster, cheaper, better and, most importantly, possible. This project not only shed light on the next four years for supply chain vendors but also developed a new research methodology, one that we feel can be applied to similar challenges across many industries.

InterSight conducted telephone surveys and its staff recruited, interviewed and transcribed surveys from the clients’ customers and prospects. Data was analyzed and distributed back to the clients.

Market Perspectives designed and implemented the database-driven surveying process that drove the project. Its repository not only holds data - text, numerical responses, phone numbers, e-mail addresses, etc. - but it also sent automatic e-mails to remind people to fill out their Web surveys, kept the project calendar and status current, and automated the process of creating analysis and intelligence from the study.

The idea for this approach to market research evolved from a three-year, three-part study by InterSight. In 1998 the firm conducted research on enterprise resource planning (ERP) systems. ERP is the catch-all term for a collection of computer systems that manage the back of an operation, such as automobile manufacturing and assembly. InterSight interviewed 63 IT managers at firms in industries from high-tech to automotive. It took 10 months to gather the research and write the final report. The 150-page tome was well-received but all participants agreed that it took too long and ran over budget.

For the next project, in 1999, the natural step was to examine customer relationship management (CRM). As its name indicates, CRM, in contrast to ERP, focuses on systems for managing a company’s front-line processes. Companies including Seibel, Vantive and Broadvision sponsored the study, one identical in format to the ERP study. InterSight interviewed 60 industry leaders and joined forces with Market Perspectives, which ran a Web survey to add qualitative data to the information obtained from the interviews.

This project was about 20 percent faster and 20 percent better than the ERP one. It met the budget but not the calendar, and still faced significant hurdles when combining data from the phone and Web sources. In addition, it was difficult to analyze data and write the final report.

The research methodology: the modus Interneti

For all three projects, InterSight held one-hour, one-on-one expert interviews with early adopters. We crafted surveys designed to elicit rich commentary and anecdotes. We also collected a range of information such as company size, percent of sales conducted electronically, and a variety of ranking and importance scales.

The supply-chain research had several inherent problems beyond the mere size of the project. We wanted to combine two incongruous data types: 1) conversational questions with open-ended verbal responses and 2) multiple-choice questions with a finite number of usually-numerical answers. Our scope essentially doubled, growing from 60 to 100 phone interviews and adding hundreds of Web surveys. The challenge was compounded by the fact that the sponsoring clients live on Internet time and wanted the final report faster than ever before.

Applying the supply-chain concept, we set out to create a single database that would hold all information for the project, from respondents’ contact information to the typed transcripts of their anecdotes. Next we mapped out all of the communications that would occur. For example, a recruiter sets an appointment for an interview and must send separate notices to the interviewer (a more senior person) and the interviewee, plus record the recruitment for tracking the project’s progress. A password and ID needs to be generated and sent to both parties. Later, analysts and transcribers must be notified when the call is complete. (This is just a partial list of about 25 events that must be tracked and communicated for the project to flow smoothly.)

In practice, the database approach generates daily project management reports which e-mailed every morning. The first set of columns shows recruiting data, and can be entered manually or appended from a list. The second set of columns shows all interviewers their schedules chronologically, creating a project calendar. A tracking section allows management, and often the entire team, to see where it stands on all interviews. This can quickly generate customized reports to answer inquiries such as how many interviews have been transcribed.

The most important fields are those containing the data for analysis. This section shows the first of the answers to about 80 questions, which were the body of the survey. The database automatically provides all responses, crosstabs and frequencies. For example, we can immediately see how many people are piloting their supply chain, and drill down on the number of months expected for implementation to predict the penetration rate of the technology. Although built in a relational database structure, data is automatically downloaded to Microsoft Excel, SPSS, Word and Access for analysis.

In addition to holding all information for the project, the database also conducts most communications, most importantly a myriad of mundane yet necessary e-mails. It sends a customized note to participants, thanking them for volunteering, notifying them of appointments, giving a URL, password, ID and instructions for the Web survey and so on. Reminders are built-in. Even administrative assistants are alerted to set up conference bridges when necessary. Interviewers know before appointments if participants filled out their Web surveys and can remind them to do so. In short, countless thousands of e-mails, which used to take endless hours, disappeared from the analyst’s to-do lists.

The database can also combine several methods of research such as phone and Web (as described here) plus focus groups, event (trade shows, conferences, etc.) intercept and more. Of course, it can be merged with existing databases and spreadsheets. One client is beginning a survey on a CD-ROM with a telephone follow-up in which contributors can schedule interviews themselves. The CD and phone results will be merged, allowing a blend of qualitative and quantitative findings. This multimedia capability allows researchers to leverage the wealth of information stored in various data warehouses, ending up with a sum often greater than the parts.

Lastly, we were able to create multiple views into the database. The recruiter sees one screen with just contact information. Once enlisted, a participant sees a second set of pages with Web questions so they can do their homework. They can stop and return and the system even bookmarks their place. The telephone interviewer sees a third display of all questions in which the completed Web and blank phone questions are interwoven. While talking, the survey leader will see, for example, that a respondent has just implemented his supply chain and will soon start selling products but hasn’t done so yet. Callers can then tailor questions to suit the circumstances, eliciting better responses.

Automated intelligence

The supply chain database transcends cyber-surveys, eclipsing the approach used for running the ERP and CRM studies. A million points of e-mail are part of the past. Can we use the modus Interneti to automate intelligence? Not entirely, but this system is a step toward that. We automated many steps in the analysis process. We reduced the research cycle from 10 months in 1998 to five months in 2000, despite the expanded scope. We stripped out most of the administrative work, dividing and conquering the workload to allow senior staff to concentrate on management and analysis while others took tasks such as transcribing.

For researchers, the supply chain method is useful for much smaller projects than the one described here. A single client can use it readily and several already are. It does not require a large number of sponsors to create a critical mass or surpass a reasonable break-even. And, the methodology is applicable to any industry.

Some analysts dub 2000 as the “Internet 2.0” era. In Internet 1.0, from 1995 to 1999, it was important to get a Web site up and running and make e-mail commonplace. Since 2000 it has been critical to conduct business at the Web site, and to collaborate rather than just communicate. In the research world, the advent of Web surveys has added another dimension to our repertoire, lending a new and meaningful mode of dialogue with respondents.

With Internet 2.0 we can expect to see greater degrees of interactivity and the combining of research techniques to further extend the capabilities of market research. While the technology itself is not the final answer, it can be a powerful tool in our efforts to better understand customers and markets.