Researchers, more than most people, probably know how wrong forecasts can sometimes be. In spite of everyone’s best efforts at predicting the future, things just don’t go as planned - whether we’re talking about sales of a new product or a snowstorm.

In the days leading up to the Advertising Research Foundation’s annual convention in New York in early March, forecasters in the local media were predicting the Storm of the Decade. As a result, plans were changed, trips were cancelled, lives were disrupted.

Then a funny thing happened: nothing. The storm did dump snow in great quantities on Boston and other eastern cities but it left New York mostly unscathed, except for a bitter wind and some clumpy snowflakes.

The threat of having their planes stranded at snow-packed airports led several airlines to cancel flights into New York, leaving ARF exhibitors, speakers and attendees alike in the lurch. But even the tag team of Old Man W"mter and his evil sidekick Overreaction Boy couldn’t stop the show from going on (mostly) as planned.

Floor traffic in the Infoplex trade show portion of the convention seemed steady both days. Many kind readers stopped by the Quirk’s booth to chat and pick up a copy of the March issue.

At the booth and at luncheons and other functions, the conversation usually turned to the weather. Everyone seemed to have their own story of how they had made it through the storm. As a lifelong resident of Minnesota, where talking about the weather is a statewide obsession, it was nice to find out that people from all coruers of the globe can be gripped by weather-mania. It was also heartening to hear New Yorkers skewer their own local media’s fear-mongering. I had thought the Twin Cities TV and radio stations were the only ones who needlessly terrorized the
public with news of threatening weather.

Gauge the mood

One of my main goals at the show this year was to try to gauge the mood of the industry in the face of the current economic doldrums. The consensus of my unscientific poll of people from various research companies was a feeling of cautious optimism. Many said the fourth quarter of 2000 had picked up a bit after a slowish start to the year. And 2001 was Shaping up to be OK - not gangbusters but not cause for panic, at least not yet.

Clients are pulling back on budgets a bit- "They’re waiting to see how things shake out" was a sentiment I heard often - and that has given some larger research firms pause. At the smaller firms, those run by independent researchers/consultants and moderators, things are apparently as busy as or busier than ever.

So what to make of it all? I guess we’ll have to wait and see how things shake out! Seriously though, the threat of recession (my apologies to one visitor to our booth who said he preferred not to use the r-word) still looms but its effects, while not leaving the research industry untouched, have yet to wreak havoc.

If we’re lucky, the much-feared full-scale economic downturn will never materialize. Perhaps it, like the "snowstorm that wasn’t," will leave the research industry bloodied but unbowed.