Executives offer expectations for 1990
According to a recent survey by Opinon Research Corp., most corporate executives predict that the low-inflation, slow growth "soft-landing" the economy has been experiencing will continue, at least until the third quarter of 1990. Hardly any foresee sharp economic declines, but a modest proportion do see some reversing of the economy's performance over the next 12 months.
The survey interviewed 500 upper- and mid-level executives at America's 1,500 largest firms. The nationwide sample includes a proportionately high representa¬tion of the upper echelon of management: 216 (43%) corporate officers.
Specifically in regard to overall economic growth, 40% of executives believe growth over the next 12 months will increase, while one out of four (26%) sees the economy continuing to grow at its current pace. However, almost one-third (32%) predict a downward turn from current growth levels.
Executives are not so confident that inflation will remain under control: as many as half (51%) believe it will increase over the next 12 months. The rest say inflation will either stay at its present level (36%) or will decline (13%) through the second quarter of 1990.
A plurality (45%) of executives believe revenues will increase at least somewhat over the next 12 months, and one in four (24%) sees revenues holding steady. Profit increases are foreseen by just over one-third (34%) of executives, and one out of four 27% expects current profit levels to continue.
Despite the predominance of bullish opinion, there is a substantial proportion of executives (including equal numbers of officers and nonofficers) who foresee sales and profits actually declining in their industries. One in three (30%) predicts industry revenues will decline, while a slightly larger proportion (38%) predict a decrease in their industry's profits over the next 12 months.
Industrial goods manufacturers appear to be more pessimistic than their peers concerning profits in their industries. Forty-five percent of the managers at industrial goods manufacturing companies believe their profits will decrease over the next 12 months. In comparison, only about one in three executives in consumer goods industries (33%), and in the service sector (35%), have a similarly negative outlook.
Survey investigates unlisted telephone households
An analysis of the demographics of unlisted telephone households in the U.S. by Survey Sampling Inc. (SSI) has uncovered a number of interesting findings. The research found that age is the most likely correlate of unlistedness. 49% of the adults interviewed in unlisted telephone households were ages 18 to 34. And, as the age of the respondent increased, the unlistedness declined. It had long been believed that the mobility of younger people was associated with unlistedness, but the study indicates that age has a greater impact than mobility. Although most unlisted households were mobile, unlistedness declined with age for both new movers and nonmovers.
In her report in SSI's newsletter The Frame, Linda Piekarski, research manager for Directory Data, a division of SSI, wrote: "59% of respondents who had moved to their current address in the past two years were unlisted. 53% of all renters and 50% of respondents living in multi-family units were unlisted, significantly above the mean unlisted rate of 39%.
"In terms of household composition, unlisted households tended to have more single, divorced, and separated householders, and fewer widowed. In one-person households, males and females aged 18 to 34 were 10% to 15% more likely to be unlisted, while those over 55 were 25% more likely to be listed. Divorced householders, particularly those with children, also tended to be unlisted."
High income households are not more likely to be unlisted. There was no evidence in the study to support the long-standing myth that unlisted households have significantly higher income than listed households. The study also found that unlisted telephone households were no more likely to refuse to participate in marketing research surveys than listed households.
"Of the 125,000+ contacts made, 40% were with unlisted households, closely approximating the unlisted rates in 80 of the largest MSAs. In some markets, unlisted households represented as much as 55% of all contacts. Most important, however, is the fact that unlisted households also represented 40% of completions and refusals, clearly dispelling the myth that unlisted households are less likely to cooperate," Piekarski wrote.