'Pizza in Our Time' and other lifestyle trends
"The Age of Autonomy," "The Global Village," and "Revenge of the Brands" are just a few of the 15 lifestyle and marketing trends that will shape the future, according to Roper Starch Worldwide, Mamaroneck, N.Y.
The trends indicate that Americans are finding new ways to solve old problems. For example, recent best-seller lists and church-attendance polls are evidence that, in their search for meaning, people are increasingly pursuing more individualistic paths to spirituality.
And some seemingly contradictory trends seem to be developing at the same time. For example, there appears to be a renewed sense of self-reliance, a reversal of a trend toward dependence on government or business to solve problems. Yet at the same time, more communal efforts are taking hold to serve collective self-interests, as evidenced in neighborhood crime watches.
The trends are described in a special 10-year anniversary edition of The Public Pulse, the firm's monthly report on "what Americans are thinking, doing, and buying." The trends, described in "Understanding The Year Ahead: Fifteen Numbers YouNeed To Know," are based on the firm's extensive Roper Reports database, which includes in-person interviews with 2,000 people nationwide, ten times a year. The database originated in 1973.
Brief descriptions of the 15 trends, excerpted from The Public Pulse, follow:
The Age of Autonomy: Who's solving the big problems? Fifty-three percent say individual Americans. New technologies, from fax machines to car phones to computer chat boards are making it easier to be self-reliant. Parents are joining grass-roots movements to arrest the decline in education. Call it the self-serve society - as in "I'll do it myself." Or call it the YOYO effect- as in "You're on your own."
The Global Village: Eighteen percent of college-educated people in the hemisphere made an international call in past month. Technology is making a reality of Marshal McLuhan' s vision of the global village, particularly among the young and the educated, the vanguard of the emerging global middle class. The concept of the global citizen, a term that has been reserved to globetrotting diplomats, corporate executives, novelists, and athletes, is moving down into the middle class.
PC Nation: Forty-three percent of middle-class Americans have used a personal computer in the past year. Personal computers aren't just for people on the fast track. As they've become more familiar with computers, Americans have begun to use them for a wider range of tasks.
Revenge of the Brands: Fewer (-13 points) think private-label groceries are less expensive (compared to the number in 1989). With national brands closing store brands' price advantage, while store brands close the quality gap, the two sides' points of difference have narrowed. Since national brands and store brands are being looked on increasingly as equal in value, both are going to be under pressure to maintain value while doing things - from innovating to brand-building advertising that maintain consumers' interest. The battle, then, appears to be both over price and marketing.
Work vs. Home: Fifty percent of women want to stay home, but many who want to can't afford to do it. The percentage of women who say they would prefer to stay home to care for their families has been rising again after falling from the '70s through mid-'80s, but fewer women think they can do it: 44 percent of women who would like to stay home don't expect they will be able to do so in the near future, up 8 percentage points from 1991.
Creature Comforts: Sixty-eight percent say staying in luxury hotels is seen as status symbol by Americans. The ones (status symbols) Americans aspire to don't involve power or prestige so much as personal comfort. Roper Starch reports that the top four status symbols Americans would personally like to have or do are "having a vacation home," "staying in luxury hotels," "traveling abroad frequently for pleasure," and "eating at expensive restaurants." Relatively few would like to "live in an exclusive neighborhood," "know people who are prominent or famous," or "have a position of power in government."
Pizza In Our Time: Fifty-nine percent of Americans are bringing home take-out food to save time, cut stress. There is likely to be continued opportunity to increase the variety of take-out available to consumers in foods and
channels of distribution.
Intimate Affair: Americans are paring back the number of friends they see. There seem to be fewer "party animals" than there were in the '80s. The decline appears to be another manifestation of how the stresses of the economy have changed lifestyles. The Baby Boom (now aged 3 I -49 years old) is well into its family years. With time at a premium, it's not as easy to keep up with lots of people. People may not be seeing as many friends as they were a few years ago, but friendship has not lost its value.
Generation ?: Only 3 percent of the 46 million Americans 18-29 say they are members of Generation X. The Public Pulse laments that many marketers and advertisers "backed off in confusion and frustration when the group defied easy stereotyping. And that's too bad for marketers. For while today's under-thirtysomethings may lack the easily-grasped generational identity associated with the Baby Boom, they are going to be an increasingly powerful force in the marketplace."
Good Carma: Fifty-two percent say U.S. cars are equal to or better than imports in overall cost of ownership. The shift is particularly important because cost has been rising in relative importance as a purchase consideration.
The New General Store: Discount stores rank among top three channels for 17 of 19 products. No, the problem isn't that people don't like to shop. It's that they don't have as much time to shop, and don't feel like they have as much money as they used to. That combination has added up to a winning formula for discount stores, which have become America's "New General Stores," offering a wide range of products at reasonable prices under one roof.
Self-Serve Advertising: Forty-nine percent of Americans want to use interactivity to study brands and products. The Public Pulse describes selfserve advertising as "consumers setting the terms of when, where and how they accept information about products and brands, and what kind of information they are looking for.
Self-serve advertising has begun, in the form of new technologies such as computer on-line services, fax machines, 800 numbers, and remote control TV 'mute' buttons and channelsurfing abilities."
Angel On My Shoulder: Fifty-eight percent of Americans in $50K-plus households say angels are "in." Unable or uninterested in pursuing traditional paths, Americans are taking a road they see as appropriate for their own concerns. Angels, in their roles as guardians, protectors, and keepers of faith, are a fitting symbol for this typically pragmatic American search for meaning.
Future Grok: Sixty-nine percent of undergrads worry about the future; they'll make society think about it, too. During the next decade, the U.S. teen population will grow at about twice the rate of the total population. The result is likely to make the Eisenhower generation and the Baby Boomers acutely interested in what kind of legacy they are leaving their children. Already, this has begun to influence public debate.
Connections: The rise of the neighborhood watch (21 percent have joined) shows groups are still key. Americans may believe they should be more self-reliant, and technology may be enabling them to be more independent. But they still prize connections with family, friends, colleagues, and their communities.
PC games won't kill Nintendo
Home PCs will not eradicate the video game console business, concludes a recent report from Cambridge, Mass.-based Forrester Research's People & Technology Strategies. The report, "Video Game Futures," presents findings from interviews with 50 game developers and publishers. The interviewees told Forrester that their current interest in the PC platform largely results from the awkward transition video game manufacturers are making from 16-bit systems like Sega Genesis and Super Nintendo to more advanced systems. Their more extended view is of both game platforms as complementary platforms that each reach different audiences.
"Despite the popularity of games like Doom and Myst, the home PC will not vaporize the video game business," says William Bluestein, research director of People & Technology Strategies and author of the report. "At 30 percent of U.S. households, 16-bit video game penetration exceeds that of home PCs. These products enjoy an absolute lock on a core consumer market - boys. Unlike PC games, video consoles offer a compelling social experience as players congregate, compete, and converse during gameplay."
A key reason why PCs will not kill video games is that the personal computer is not capable of generating hit titles a la Super Mario Brothers or Sonic the Hedgehog. Super Mario, Mortal Kombat, NBA Jam, and Donkey Kong together have generated well over $1 billion in retail sales.
"The two markets need to be kept in perspective," adds Bluestein."Myst, the PC game hit, rang up roughly $40 million compared to $400 million for Sonic the Hedgehog. This level of sales makes Sonic an icon of mass culture, Myst, a cult."
The rise of the home PC will create a new game market that will coexist alongside the traditional console business. Says Bluestein, "The important thing about the PC is that it can reach beyond the testosterone-crazed hard core of the video game market. It will support a diverse array of kids' games, adult titles, and offerings for women." The report predicts that due to this more fragmented market, the PC game market will exhibit different dynamics than will the console market. This will include smaller, more frequent hits, a smoother business cycle, and more segmented marketing.
The report, "Video Game Futures," is part of People & Technology Strategies, a Forrester research service that focuses on technology's impact on consumers.
Baby Boomers turn to gardening
The baby boomer generation has turned in its picket signs, sit-ins, and tie-dyes for a hoe, lawn mower, and a bag of mulch, according to the new Organic Gardening magazine survey "Gardening in America '95." Because the Woodstock generation is becoming the "root stock" generation, gardening is now the most popular American outdoor leisure time activity, practiced by 78 million adults, an increase of 30 percent since the 1992 "Gardening in America" findings. Baby Boomers, age 35-54, make up the largest segment of the 78 million gardeners with 58 percent falling in that age group.
Responding to the increased interest in gardening, Organic Gardening magazine has taken another, more in-depth look at the growing interest in gardening with "Gardening in America '95." The '95 study, expanded since the release of the '92 study, includes psychographics and demographics as well as purchasing history and future purchasing intentions.
"Gardening In America '95" reveals new and updated statistics that substantiate the growth of gardening and gardening practices. The survey finds that two out of every five American adults garden. Because the 78 million gardeners form such a large and diverse group, the study breaks down gardeners into smaller psychographic segments: Dabblers, Decorators, Cultivators, and Masters. Each of the four segments differs as to their motivations for gardening, gardening interests and habits, shopping behavior, level of expertise, and their sources for obtaining new gardening information. Factors such as level of commitment, activities, gender, age, and regionality are also broken down statistically to better explore the reasons why gardeners engage in the growing hobby.
The study also shows that during the last 12 months, only one in five gardeners didn't use any organic gardening techniques. (Organic methods include mulching, composting, using beneficial insects, etc.) Thirty-seven percent of the 78 million gardeners used primarily organic methods with 43 percent of advanced gardeners using organic methods. The main reason why gardeners don't use organic methods, according to the survey, is that they don't know how to use them. Thirty-five percent of nonusers say they don't know how to use organic products, and another 33 percent say they are simply not familiar with the benefits of organic methods. Among present non-users, 17 percent say they plan on using them or minimizing their chemical usage within the next year.
New findings indicate that each year gardeners spend nearly $13 billion on lawn and garden products, including plants, soil amendments, and pesticides. The study explores buying habits such as: most purchased gardening products, where they're purchased, how much is bought, the loyalty of garden shoppers, and their shopping habits with regard to credit and impulse buying.
"Gardening is the most popular leisure activity in the United States and the passion to garden is growing as the baby boom generation approaches middle age." says Organic Gardening Publisher Barbara Newton. "More and more Americans are also concerned with staying healthy, and the movement to garden, and garden organically, shows no sign offlagging." With more people digging into gardening, the outlook for sales of lawn and garden supplies is rosy - a fact not lost on the large retail home centers like Wal-Mart. Target, Kmart, and Home Depot. These retail chains are courting gardeners with new and expanded garden centers within their stores.
"Gardening in America '95" will be distributed in three formats: a descriptive objective summary, a tabulation report consisting of several hundred pages of annotated tables, and as a database for IBM-compatible desktop computers. The executive summary may be purchased separately for $750. The complete study in hard copy will be available for $10,000. lt will be available on disk with a software package for an additional $600.