Survey Monitor May 1998

Who plays the lottery?

When it comes to taking chances, men aren’t afraid to try their luck - in the lottery, at least. According to a recent Maritz AmeriPoll conducted by St. Louis-based Maritz Marketing Research, 42 percent of American men play the lottery at least once a month, and one-fourth of them play weekly. By contrast, nearly half ofwomen say they never play the lottery, with just one-third playing at least monthly, and 15 percent playing weekly.

When men take chances in the lottery, they go all the way. Of those who say they played the lottery daily, 93 percent of men played seven days a week, versus two-thirds of women who play daily. Though many respondents say they never play the lottery (43 percent), those who do most commonly play once or twice a week (20 percent), or once or twice a month (16 percent). And since men play most often, they tend to spend more money on lottery tickets in a typical month: 54 percent of men spend $5 to $50 per month, while 51 percent of women spend less than $5 per month. Men are twice as likely to spend more than $50 each month on lottery tickets.

Gas stations and convenience stores are the most popular places to buy lottery tickets, favored by 64 percent, followed by grocery stores (22 percent), liquor stores (8 percent), and drug stores (3 percent). Seventy percent of men buy their tickets at gas stations and convenience stores, while women and the elderly are more likely than men to try their luck at gocery or drug stores.

The Wednesday and Saturday games are most popular among lottery players, preferred by 54 percent. Instant scratch-offs were next with 32 percent, followed by weekly games (28 percent), and daily games (8 percent). The thrill of instant gatification provided by scratch-off tickets was significantly more popular among the young crowd, chosen by 57 percent of 18-24-year-old lottery players.

Finally, there’s proof that hope springs eternal among lottery players: 74 percent claim that lottery game odds do not influence the kinds of tickets they buy. Instead, the amount of the jackpot seems to be the driving force behind lottery ticket sales, cited by 57 percent as an influence to play, followed by hearing or reading about other winners (9 percent), in-store signs and advertisements (8 percent), and television ads (5 percent). Still, nearly one-third say they play the lottery no matter what the stakes.

Middle East population to rise rapidly

Nearly every Middle Eastern country will see a rapid rise in the number of its inhabitants over the next 15 years, says a new study by market intelligence goup Euromonitor in its new "Consumer Middle East 1998."

The first edition of this statistical handbook on the region shows that the population of Saudi Arabia will rise by 61 percent, Iran will see a 41 percent increase and Jordan 57 percent. Together, Iran, Egypt and Turkey will have a population of around 255 million by the year 2010. Even now, the rate of population gowth is at least 2.5 percent in every country. As a result, the average age in the Middle East is very young: about four out of every 10 people are under the age of 15.

The two main reasons for the population explosion are the dramatic drop in infant mortality resulting from better living standards and health services, and the region-wide preference for large families. In some countries, women typically give birth to as many as seven or eight children. Saudi Arabia has the highest birth rate, with nearly 39 babies born per thousand inhabitants compared with 28 in Egypt and just over 20 in Turkey.

Turkey is easily the region’s most popular tourist destination: a record 9.7 million tourists visited in 1996, nearly three times as many as visited Egypt and a 22 percent increase over 1995. According to Euromonitor’s statistics, Turkey is growing ever more popular, with the number of tourist arrivals rising by 15 percent every year. Egypt’s tourist industry is also developing rapidly, though hindered by terrorist attacks on visitors. In the next century the Red Sea could be a common holiday destination: it is expected to attract half of Egypt’s expected 10 million annual visitors by 2020. At least 90,000 hotel rooms must be built to accommodate these Red Sea tourists (more than the country’s total capacity in 1996) and water will somehow have to be piped in from the already overburdened Nile.

Israel is also working hard to attract the tourist dollar. Provided peace is restored, the industry plans
to cater to over 4.5 million annual visitors by 2006, necessitating 53,000 new hotel rooms (more than doubling today’s total to 91,000.)

Euromonitor’s study shows that Egyptians have the highest death rate, highest infant mortality rate, and highest unemployment rate in the region. However, they also have the highest marriage rate (8.7 per thousand people in 1995) and a slightly lower divorce rate than the Israelis (1.4 per thousand versus 1.5 per thousand). Israelis can expect to live longer than their neighbors: women live to nearly 80, while men can reach an average age of 75.5. Again, Egyptians are less fortunate, attaining an average age of only 63 and 61 respectively.

The Saudi Arabians are the Middle East’s biggest meat-eaters, getting through over 50kg each in 1996. The Turks are the least carnivorous, eating an average of only 20kg each. However, over half the Saudis’ meat intake is poultry, whereas the Turks’ main form of meat is beef and veal. In the UAE the most popular types of meat are lamb, mutton and goat.

To wash it down, residents of the United Arab Emirates lead the consumption of soft drinks at nearly 85 liters per capita in 1996. Egyptians are the most restrained, downing only 30 liters each, while the Israelis have a particular fondness for carbonated drinks: nearly 50 liters per person were drunk in 1996 compared with the 18 liters consumed by Turks and Egyptians. For more information

Point of sale promotions ineffective

In the struggle to gain attention at the point of sale, consumer product marketers are spending an increasing amount of money on a variety of sales promotions. A survey conducted by CDB Research & Consulting Inc., New York, indicates that these sales promotions are often ineffective.

The study reveals that only 25 percent of consumers shopping in supermarkets notice point of sale promotions on product packaging. Of those who do, only two out of five will go on to purchase the product offering the promotion. "American companies have been slow to recognize the importance of conducting pre- and post-promotion research," says Larry Chiagouris, managing director, CDB Research & Consulting Inc. "Knowing what attracts consumers’ attention can save dollars invested in programs that often fail to produce results."

According to the survey, point of sale promotions are most effective when geared towards the young, single and less affluent shopper. "We’ve studied consumer response to a wide variety of marketing techniques," says Chiagouris. "Point of sale promotions in supermarkets appeal to the most price-conscious elements of the shopping public."

If produce is convenient, it will sell

Convenience is the overwhelming theme for consumers in this time-crunched world, according to a new consumer study. People are buying more prepared meals and fresh-cut produce to ease the time crunch in their busy lives.

More than one-third of consumers say they bought a prepared meal from a supermarket or grocery store in the past six months, according to "Fresh Trends 1998." The study also found consumers are eating up fresh-cut vegetables, fruit and salads.

"Fresh Trends 1998" has just been released by The Packet’, a business newspaper serving the fresh produce industry, and Vance Research Services, each a part of Vance Publishing Corp., Lincolnshire, lll.

In this trend toward prepared foods, consumers are not forgetting their produce. Nearly 75 percent of the prepared meals purchased from a supermarket or convenience store in the past six months included some type of produce.

Consumers’ concerns about microbial contamination of fresh produce have risen dramatically in the last year. In a year where the media heavily covered several outbreaks of food borne illness, it is not surprising to fred consumers have changed the way they buy produce and in some cases have stopped buying certain types of produce altogether.

Sixty percent of consumers say they are more concerned than they were 12 months ago about salmonella bacteria on fresh produce. Concerns about other bacterial contamination of fresh produce also have increased. Fifty-eight percent of consumers say they are more concerned about the issue than they were a year ago.

Some consumers have stopped buying strawberries and raspberries because of food safety concerns. Thirteen percent say they have stopped buying strawberries, and 7 percent say they have stopped buying raspberries.

Consumers are finding satisfaction in organic produce. More than one-fourth of consumers say they bought organic fresh produce in the past six months. Of those consumers, 98 percent say they were at least somewhat satisfied with their purchases.

Organic vegetables are the most popular purchases with tomatoes, lettuce and carrots leading the way.

Signifcantly more people purchase organic vegetables than purchase organic fruit.

Other topics covered in the study include fresh-cut, shopping habits and 5 a Day/nutrition.

Highlights from "Fresh Trends 1998" are available in a 92-page magazine for $20. A full report, including demographic data, is available for $200. To obtain a copy of the magazine or the report, write or call Carol Cox, The Packer, 10901 W. 84th Terrace, Lenexa, Kan.

The coming age of digital TV

As television manufacturers get ready to launch the next generation of television - the digital TV - next year, fmdings of a new national study conducted by the market research subsidiary of St. Louis-based Aragon Consulting Group, a management consulting firm, reveal that many consumers initially may not make a beeline to buy them.

Aragon reports that 57.8 percent of the respondents were aware of the changes taking place in the television industry prior to the survey. However, of those familiar with the television industry’s evolution from analog to digital broadcasting, only 25.5 percent of those surveyed say that the timing of their next television purchase will be swayed by the switch to digital. When specifically asked when they plan to buy another television, only 2.3 percent of participants say that they will buy a new set once digital TVs become available in stores.

In total, 10.3 percent of those participating in the Aragon study say they will purchase a television set before next summer; 7.5 percent say they will buy one within the next one to five years; 2 percent say it will be six years or more; and 38.3 percent say whenever their current set breaks. The remaining 39.8 percent say they do not know when they will purchase their next set.

The Aragon study also shows that the average American household has 2.7 television sets, with the newest television set in any given home being 3.9 years old on average and the oldest being 9.4 years old on average. For homes with multiple numbers of televisions, the oldest is an average of 7.6 years where there are two or more televisions; 9.4 where there are three or more; 11.3 where there are four or more; and 10.3 where there are five or more.

"Once again, research shows that although there may be some initial interest in a new technology, the novelty of it does not drive purchase decisions," says Gary Miller, chairman of Aragon Consulting Group. "And, in this case, given the length of time that consumers keep their old sets around, it’s no surprise-that more than half (53.3 percent) of those we surveyed say the federal government did not allow enough time for the nation to switch from analog to digital broadcasting," says Miller. Television manufacturers plan to roll the sets out in the stores in 1998, while the government is compelling broadcasters to make a complete transition to digital by 2006. In the meantime, broadcasters will be televising their programs in digital and analog.

Even so, support for the timetable is significantly more likely to be found among men (36.3 percent versus 24.3 percent of women) and people with higher annual household incomes. For instance, 21.3 percent of individuals surveyed with incomes of less than $35,000 say the government is allowing enough time, compared with 34.6 percent of people with incomes from $35,000 to $55,000 or 34.1 percent of those with incomes of $55,000 or more.

A national random sample of 400 was drawn to complete the study, which produced results within a +/-5 percent margin of error.

Convenience will drive adoption of on-line retail shopping

Will on-line shopping become a mainstream habit? According to a recent report from Forrester Research, Cambridge, Mass., once consumers discover the convenience of on-line shopping, spending will increase dramatically. By 2001, more than $17 billion will be spent with on-line merchants. On-line shoppers now spend more than $4 million a day on PCs, software, books, music, and adult entertainment. But is this new activity ready to move from the experimental stage to an established behavior? Forrester’s People & Technology Strategies Report "Retail Revs Up," examines the experiences of on-line shoppers and merchants and concludes that:

Convenience will drive on-line retail’s broader adoption. Consumers we interviewed say that on-line’s convenience will increase purchasing frequency.
Surgical shopping will remain the dominant pattern. Purposeful, focused buying rather than browsing will characterizethis market.
By 2001, today’s leading consumer items (computers, software, entertainment, books, music, and travel) will set a blistering pace, accounting for 86 percent of on-line business. Apparel, food, and electronics will take hold later.

Major companies rely on intranets

In its report "Corporate Internet and Extranet Strategies: the Business Implications," New York-based technology analysis f’lrm Datamonitor states that over half of the Fortune 500 intranets will function as extranets by the year 2000 and ROI should not be the primary driver for corporate intranet investment.

Intranets are rapidly becoming commonplace in U.S. corporations. According to Datamonitor, nine out of every 10 large businesses (i.e., $500 million in annual revenues) will have an intranet before the end of this year. "By the year 2000, more than half of corporate intranets will be opened up into extranets, enabling companies to easily share information with their business partners thus leading to increased investment and content development for internal Web sites," says Datamonitor Analyst Robert Shavell.

IT managers say intranets pay for themselves within a six-month period, but companies should not use ROI alone to justify this investment. Datamonitor research indicates that most businesses anticipate a return on investment very quickly.

"Simply put, initial costs for a barebones intranet are very low. As more functions are offloaded to the intranet, costs rise significantly. But intranets are a new kind of animal, they hide their costs by blending in like well-adapted chameleons. Corporations need to get realistic about their intranet initiatives and stop using ROI hype to sell these projects to senior management," says Shavell.