2015 holiday shopping predictions

Editor’s note: Phil Ahad is vice president at Toluna QuickSurveys, Washington, D.C.

Holiday shopping season is officially underway, so our team polled 1,000 consumers about their holiday shopping intentions. Perhaps not surprisingly, 88 percent of respondents plan to holiday shop this year, and of those shoppers, 69 percent set a budget for themselves before they begin their holiday shopping.

In a nutshell, marketers should remain vigilant at appealing to not only shoppers searching for gifts for others but also those looking for gifts for themselves. The breaks should not be pushed on holiday marketing efforts until 12/24, as many Americans are self-proclaimed procrastinators and in-store remains the primary way consumers will shop, so do not skimp on in-store experience.

The study looked at consumer’s budgets for the 2015 holiday shopping: 8 percent say less than $100; 41 percent say $100-$499; 23 percent $500 – $999; 16 percent $1,000 – $1,999; and 12 percent $2,000 – $3,000+. Of the budgeters, 67 percent are likely to stick to that budget; 20 percent are unlikely to stick to that budget; and 13 percent are neither likely nor unlikely to stick to that budget.

Who are consumers shopping for:

• 38 percent will shop for themselves;
• 56 percent will shop for their spouse;
• 50 percent will shop for their children;
• 14 percent will shop for co-workers;
• 45 percent will shop for friends;
• 15 percent will shop for their children’s teachers;
• 19 percent will shop for charity donations; and
• 76 percent will shop for family.

Takeaway: Don’t just appeal to the gift-giver in consumers but also their selfish sides. Imagine how you’d look in this dress – how great this item would make you feel. Thirty-eight percent of consumers will simultaneously be shopping for themselves while shopping for their loved ones this season.

When are consumers shopping:

• 46 percent have already started their holiday shopping;
• 15 percent will start before Thanksgiving;
• 35 percent will start between Thanksgiving and the week before Christmas;
• 3 percent will wait until the week of Christmas;
• 47 percent say they’ll shop on Black Friday this year; and
• 65 percent say they’ll shop on Cyber Monday this year.

Respondents that found Black Friday appealing because sighted early and extended hours, aggressive deals and discounts as main draws. Those that planned on Cyber Monday shopping noted the convenience of shopping from home or work.

Takeaway: A large percentage of shoppers are procrastinators, so push holiday deals and promotions up until the week of Christmas because nearly 35 percent of shoppers will still be pounding the mall pavement on the 24th.

Where are consumers shopping:

• 54 percent will do the bulk of their shopping in-store;
• 43 percent online; and
• 3 percent via catalog/phone.

Takeaway: The efforts you put forth online and on social media should be mimicked in-store as well – and done even better if possible. Brands need to invest dollars in in-store employees and processes to keep shoppers happy and in their stores. Think shorter lines, free coffee, etc.

How are consumers shopping?

Eighty percent plan to do some research on who’s offering the best prices before doing their holiday shopping:

• 71 percent will search various retailers’ Web sites for pricing;
• 44 percent will use a price comparison Web site;
• 62 percent will look through the circulars; and
• 12 percent will call retailers and ask when they’ll be having sales.

In terms of their shopping mentality:

• 42 percent have specific items in mind for each person and know exactly what they’re going to the store/going online for;
• 31 percent usually browse the stores/Web sites they know are having sales and figure out what to get everyone; and
• 27 percent usually wait to see what kind of sales retailers are having and tailor their gifts around those.

As related to the role of social media in holiday shopping this year:

• 28 percent will follow certain retailers/brands on social media to keep an eye out for sales, promo codes and deals;
• 22 percent will follow retailers/brands on social media to find out what’s popular to get ideas for gifts;
• 12 percent will follow celebrities on social media to find out what products they’re endorsing; and
• 58 percent will not use social media in relation to their holiday shopping.

What are consumers shopping for? Study respondents reported:

• 52 percent gift cards;
• 7 percent clothing;
• 4 percent something for the home;
• 4 percent accessories;
• 5 percent electronics;
• 2 percent tickets;
• 4 percent entertainment (music, movies, etc.);
• 2 percent toys;
• 5 percent food;
• 1 percent something sports related; and
• 4 percent something handmade.

Takeaway: Make purchasing gift cards in-store easier. Perhaps shoppers should not need to wait on a long line to purchase those little cards, but rather have mobile checkout persons available to quickly complete these transactions.

The study also looked to see how many gifts respondents with children planned to purchase, per child. Thirty-six percent responded with one-to-two, 26 percent said three-to-four, 28 percent five-to-nine and 10 percent responded with 10+ gifts.