Editor’s note: Athena Rodriguez is project director at marketing research firm Chadwick Martin Bailey, Boston.

Researchers today are tasked with juggling tight budgets, tighter turnaround times and increasingly bigger tasks, so I understand if the future of the U.S. Census didn’t make your list of things to worry about this week. But a lack of funding coupled with the recent resignation of U.S. Census Bureau Director John Thompson have put the 2020 Census in danger – and the ramifications for our community and for our industry are deeply concerning.

The U.S. Census Bureau might not get the media coverage of other government entities but it plays a critical role in our democracy, federal spending and in the marketing research industry. As we prepare for the 2020 Census, it’s time for us – client- and agency-side researchers – to start paying attention.

The U.S. Census

As a reminder, the U.S. Census, mandated by the Constitution, is a decennial survey that counts every resident in the U.S. The data is used to allocate electoral votes and congressional seats by state. In addition, it helps the government determine how to distribute roughly $4 billion in federal funds to local communities that help pay for infrastructures such as schools, hospitals, roads, public works and other vital programs. The U.S. Census Bureau also administers the monthly American Community Survey (ACS) – comprised of the long-form Census questions – sent to about 295,000 households a month. You can read more about the work of the Bureau and how the data are used here.

A new methodology 

Replicating the 2020 Census using the 2010 methodology would cost $17.8 billion but Congress has mandated that the Census Bureau limit spending to meet the 2010 Census budget ($13 billion over 10 years).

To comply, the Bureau hoped to implement a new system, adding online and phone data collection in addition to mail and in-person visits, that will ultimately keep costs in line. Any change in methodology requires rigorous planning and testing to ensure results are accurate and replicable. For example, when moving a brand tracker from the phone to Web you typically run tandem data collections (both phone and online) for the first wave and then compare the results. This testing requires extra work and may initially cost more but it’s critical to ensure the results from the new methodology are comparable and will save money in the long run.

The scope and costs of the Census far exceed my brand tracker example and given the uncertainty of the budget it’s unclear whether the Census will be able to properly test the new methodology before implementation. If funding isn’t there for testing, the U.S. Census Bureau runs the risk of missing the mark.

The end-to-end of the Census test is still slated for 2018 but the prerequisite field tests that were to run this year have been cancelled. The Bureau hopes to include the areas from the cancelled field tests but that’s still up in the air.

The U.S. Census and marketing research

The U.S. Census serves as the backbone for all consumer marketing research. I don’t think it’s an exaggeration to say that here at CMB we use the Census on a weekly basis, if not more often, to design sampling plans, weight data, size audiences and make recommendations to our clients on who to target. You would be hard pressed to find a consumer research initiative that doesn’t use Census information.

If the Census is flawed by undercount (resulting from poorly-tested methodology), how can we confidently trust it as a legitimate benchmark to base our own research on? The fundamental errors in the Census would then be reproduced in most research studies – yes, that means the segmentation, market strategy or attitude and usage initiatives your organization depends on to make critical decisions – and undermine the credibility and integrity of our work.

Impacting hard-to-reach residents

If the Census is underfunded, the undercount would most likely impact areas where residents are harder to reach (think lower socioeconomic groups less likely to have Internet access, rural populations, transient populations like seasonal workers, etc.). The very communities that need funding the most could be deprived of vital federal funds due to disproportionate allocations.

In addition to faulty fund allocation, an underfunded, undercounted Census could produce a misrepresentation of seats in our House of Representatives. In this charged political environment where everyone’s vying to be heard, it’s more important than ever to ensure we are properly represented.

Undermining the quality of MR

Though 2020 may seem far off, if Congress doesn’t properly fund the Census now while there’s still time for testing we run the risk of executing a bad Census, one that misrepresents the population, unfairly allocates resources and undermines the quality and credibility of marketing research. I strongly encourage the marketing research community – both client- and agency-side – to stand up and make their voices heard to preserve this important institution.

Call on the Trump administration to fill the vacant Census director seat and on Congress to adequately fund the 2020 Census. The Communications Consortium Center’s Census Project has the following concrete steps you can take to make your voice heard:

  • Be informed – sign on to the Census Project distribution list to know what’s happening and when to act.
  • Write an e-mail and request meetings with your senators and representatives. Your message is simple: consistent, accurate decennial Census and ACS data are vital, unique and essential to a strong local economy and the well-being of all residents in your state. Contact information for every U.S. senator is available at http://www.senate.gov/senators/contact/. Similar links for all members of the U.S. House of Representatives are available at http://www.house.gov/representatives/.
  • Connect with others in our professional communities. It often only takes a few constituent letters to convince a member of Congress to focus attention on an issue.