Food and drink choices in a post-GLP-1 world
Editor’s note: Tom Ellis is CEO of Brand Genetics.
People and their needs, motivations and contexts should be at the heart of every demand space map. Market researchers have long used demand spaces to understand complexity – seeking to anchor brand strategy in consumption moments.
But does reality match the theory? In truth, the structure of the demand space map has been heavily influenced by how manufacturers (and retailers) segment, market and merchandise. Demand has been as much molded as uncovered – as much created as captured. That’s why demand spaces across different food and beverage manufacturers have been consistent.
But what happens when a consumer’s very ability to feel hunger, indulgence or satisfaction is biologically altered? What are the implications for innovation streams, communication campaigns and product claims – currently rooted in demand space thinking?
This is the urgent question brands now face in food and drink. The rise of GLP-1 drugs such as Ozempic and Wegovy – used for type 2 diabetes and weight loss – is reshaping the physiological and psychological basis of consumption itself. By 2030, 9% of the U.S. population could be on GLP-1, with the UK market is also set to triple by then, from an estimated £180 million in 2024 to over £575 million. Appetite suppression on this scale is not a trend. It’s a structural transformation. We can no longer treat demand space as stable terrain.
What a GLP-1 does is change the fundamentals on which these demand spaces have been built (e.g., ideas like reward, indulgence) – they upset the longstanding applecart and shift the rules significantly. But it’s not all doom and gloom. Now there is the opportunity to secure competitive advantage by thinking in a new way – a more predictive way – about demand spaces, and to anticipate the in-context needs of a growing GLP-1-shaped population.
Demand spaces: No longer static, now structural
Traditionally, demand space mapping has combined motivations, occasions and product types to reveal opportunity areas – whether that’s “afternoon treat,” “on-the-go energy” or “comfort after work.” These maps help marketers optimize portfolios, comms and innovation pipelines.
But GLP-1 drugs disrupt the foundations of those spaces.
- Cravings are reduced – which undermines spontaneous snacking occasions.
- Emotional eating drops – challenging spaces like “reward” or “comfort food.”
- Portion sizes shrink – destabilizing spaces built around indulgence or volume.
With every major disruption comes opportunity. As people eat less, they will seek more from every bite: more protein, more nutrition, more satiety, more simplicity. Brands that design for this new biology – and speak to motivations like control, confidence and health – can win the next era of demand.
Rebuilding the framework: From description to diagnosis
To remain useful, demand space mapping must evolve from static description to structural diagnosis. This means going beyond simply resegmenting around new behaviors. We need a framework that explains why behavior is changing and what is enabling or inhibiting it. It is with this insight approach that the next trumps the now – and reveals the new pathways to growth.
I propose revisiting the very DNA of demand space design with a science-backed, human-centric approach aimed at understanding and predicting how people's behavior changes. Researchers must go beyond surface-level preference shifts and uncover the deep behavioral architecture being reshaped by GLP-1 use; explaining how behavior is changing biologically, not just psychologically.
We must. break behavior down into three interacting components:
- Drivers: What new goals are shaping consumption? GLP-1 users often seek efficiency in food – more nutrition, more function, less emotional complexity. Satiety, protein and control are new motivational drivers.
- Enablers: What systems or influences support emerging behaviors? Celebrity use of GLP-1s, social media narratives and health care access are changing what’s culturally acceptable or aspirational in eating habits.
- Abilities: What are consumers no longer able – or willing – to do? Emotional overeating and portion-led indulgence aren’t just falling out of fashion – they’re becoming physiologically difficult. This closes off some traditional demand spaces while opening others (e.g., micro meals with high nutritional density).
From mapping the present to predicting the future
For insight professionals, the shift is clear: Demand spaces are no longer just descriptive frameworks for current needs. They must become predictive models for future behaviors.
It also means moving from segmentation by occasion, or emotion, to segmentation by motivational structure. The goal isn’t just to see what’s changing on the surface – it’s to understand why it’s changing and where it will go next.
A call to action for researchers
The implication is profound: if frameworks don’t adapt, we risk misguiding strategy. In this fast-changing landscape, brands still building portfolios around old demand definitions may find themselves solving for needs that no longer exist.
As researchers, our role is to surface the truth beneath the trend – to help businesses make sense of transformation before it hits the bottom line. In this case, that means challenging assumptions about appetite, indulgence and satisfaction, and helping brands uncover what food and drink choices mean in a post-GLP-1 world.
We need to go deeper on demand spaces in food and beverage; beyond bringing to life the status quo. We need to rebuild the demand space map from the ground up.